SATCOM INTELSatellite & space-infrastructure intelligence, read through SESBrief 2026-08-29 · 15:14 UTC

THE CMD WAR ROOM · THE COMMS TAM STORYBOARD

Sizing the commercial
satellite-communications market

Five boards: market size, the four verticals, the orbit split of their growth, where the growth lands, and the GEO order book. Operator detail is on the Peer Comparison tab.

Scope: wholesale airtime revenue only — GEO (widebeam FSS + GEO-HTS) plus NGSO. Video and consumer broadband excluded. Data: Novaspace 2025 and company earnings calls. Window 2022–2030; forecast from 2025.

TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET — AIRTIME REVENUES ONLY · US$ BILLION0$3.5B$7B$10.5B$14BFORECAST →202220232024202520262027202820292030$4.2Btotal 2022$6.8Btotal 2025$13.5Btotal 2030GEO$3.6BNGSO$9.9B5% → -2.6%/yr71% → 31%/yrGEO revenues peak 2025$4.2B, then declineincl. widebeam FSS · Source: Novaspace 2025

BOARD 1 · TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET

Airtime revenues only: $4.2B in 2022, $13.5B by 2030.

SPLIT IT BY ORBIT

Two orbits carry it: GEO on the bottom, NGSO on top.

GEO PEAKED ALREADY

GEO revenues peak 2025 at $4.2B, then decline. Every added dollar after that is NGSO.

THE FORECAST RATES

Into 2030: GEO -2.6%/yr, NGSO 31%/yr.

scroll ↓

GEO peaked in 2025 at $4.2B and declines-2.6%/yr through 2030. NGSO takes all growth after 2025, adding $7.3B. The 2025–2030 window is the target TAM.

Show the numbers — per-year Δ and CAGRs
YearGEO ($M)Δ YoYNGSO ($M)Δ YoYTotal ($M)Δ YoY
20223,644—518—4,162—
20233,987+343880+3624,867+705
20244,112+1251,700+8195,811+945
2025 ᶠ ◂ GEO peak4,163+512,607+9086,770+958
2026 ᶠ4,081−823,717+1,1107,798+1,028
2027 ᶠ4,001−804,938+1,2208,939+1,141
2028 ᶠ3,896−1056,493+1,55510,388+1,450
2029 ᶠ3,777−1198,076+1,58411,853+1,465
2030 ᶠ3,648−1299,880+1,80313,528+1,675
CAGR '22–'25+4.5%/yr+71.3%/yr+17.6%/yr
CAGR '25–'30 · target TAM-2.6%/yr+30.5%/yr+14.9%/yr
Sources & method

Source: Novaspace 2025, Satellite Connectivity & Video Market (data/raw/tam/ mirror) — data/tam/tam_segments.csv. GEO = widebeam FSS + GEO-HTS. Excluding consumer broadband removes $5.2B of 2030 NGSO revenue; flip its included flag in the CSV to test. ᶠ = forecast.

BOARD 2 · BY VERTICAL

TAM split into four commercial verticals

The Board 1 total, split into four applications. Bars show growth only, from a common origin: solid = growth to 2025; fuchsia hatch = growth to 2030, the target TAM. The dashed line marks 2025; 2022 start values sit at the origin.

Fixed dataEnterprise networks + trunking/backhaul + land mobility
Fixed data · +$1.7B to $4.2B by 2025Fixed data · +$4.4B to $8.6B by 2030 (forecast — target TAM)$2.4B2022$8.6B2030+$1.7B+$4.4B2025
GovernmentMilsatcom + government data
Government · +$194M to $972M by 2025Government · +$1.0B to $2.0B by 2030 (forecast — target TAM)$778M2022$2.0B2030
AeroIn-flight connectivity
Aero · +$273M to $646M by 2025Aero · +$1.0B to $1.7B by 2030 (forecast — target TAM)$374M2022$1.7B2030
MaritimeMaritime connectivity
Maritime · +$425M to $986M by 2025Maritime · +$320M to $1.3B by 2030 (forecast — target TAM)$561M2022$1.3B2030

Every vertical grows. Fixed data (includes land mobility) adds the most: +$4.4B by 2030. Government and Aero add about a billion each.

increase to 2025 · forecast increase to 2030 — the target TAM · dashed line marks 2025 on every bar.

Show the numbers
Vertical2022 ($M)2025 ($M)2030 ($M)CAGR '22–'25Growth '25–'30Added ($M)
Fixed data2,4494,1648,568+19.4%+106%+4,403
Government7789721,998+7.7%+105%+1,026
Aero3746461,655+20.0%+156%+1,009
Maritime5619861,307+20.7%+32%+320
Total4,1626,77013,528+17.6%+100%+6,758
Sources & method

Source: Novaspace 2025, Satellite Connectivity & Video Market (data/raw/tam/ mirror), wholesale revenues by application — data/tam/tam_segments.csv. Fixed data = enterprise networks + trunking/backhaul + land mobility. Video, consumer broadband and committed capacity excluded.

BOARD 3 · THE ORBIT SPLIT

Every vertical's growth is NGSO

Each vertical's 2026–2030 increment, split by orbit.NGSO takes the growth;GEO is negative in 3 of the four verticals.

0+$1B+$2B+$3B+$4BFixed datanet +$4.4BFixed data · NGSO +$4.6B (2026–2030 increment)NGSO +$4.6BFixed data · GEO −$193M (2026–2030 increment)GEO −$193MGovernmentnet +$1.0BGovernment · NGSO +$1.3B (2026–2030 increment)NGSO +$1.3BGovernment · GEO −$260M (2026–2030 increment)GEO −$260MAeronet +$1.0BAero · NGSO +$828M (2026–2030 increment)NGSO +$828MAero · GEO +$181M (2026–2030 increment)GEO +$181MMaritimenet +$320MMaritime · NGSO +$563M (2026–2030 increment)NGSO +$563MMaritime · GEO −$242M (2026–2030 increment)GEO −$242M

Across the four verticals, NGSO adds $7.3B while GEO loses $514M. Only aero adds any GEO (+$181M), and even that rides on a LEO cell, not standalone GEO. The next board shows where what little GEO remains is earned — region by region.

Show the numbers — orbit split by vertical, 2026–2030 ($M)
VerticalGEO ΔNGSO ΔTotal ΔNGSO share
Fixed data−193+4,596+4,403104%
Government−260+1,286+1,026125%
Aero+181+828+1,00982%
Maritime−242+563+320176%
Total−514+7,272+6,758108%
Sources & method

Source: Novaspace 2025, Satellite Connectivity & Video Market (data/raw/tam/ mirror), capacity revenues per application × orbit — data/tam/vertical_regional_revenue.csv. Figures are the 2025→2030 delta. GEO = widebeam FSS + GEO-HTS; NGSO share > 100% where GEO declines.

BOARD 4 · WHERE THE FUTURE GEO BUSINESS LANDS

Where the next five years of GEO business lands

GEO revenue change by region, 2026–2030, one map per vertical. Green grows; red declines.

$6.8B

total revenue added, 2026–2030
(GEO + NGSO, all four verticals)

−$514M

of which is GEO — net decline
($7.3B is NGSO)

Most of the remaining GEO growth is not earned where GEO earns today. In Government and Maritime, no region grows at all — all future revenue there is NGSO.

VERTICAL 1 / 4

Fixed data

GEO airtime revenue · incremental change, 2026–2030 · by region · US$M

VALUE MIGRATES OUT OF REACH

Every Western region declines; the only GEO growth left is in South-East Asia, South Asia and China.

VERTICAL 2 / 4

Government

GEO airtime revenue · incremental change, 2026–2030 · by region · US$M

GEO DECLINES EVERYWHERE

No region grows. Government GEO shrinks in every market; the growth goes to NGSO.

VERTICAL 3 / 4

Aero

GEO airtime revenue · incremental change, 2026–2030 · by region · US$M

GROWTH FROM THE LEGACY BASE — NOT NEW SALES

Not new GEO demand. About 10,000 aircraft already carry GEO terminals; rising per-passenger bandwidth (free Wi-Fi, streaming) lifts revenue on that installed base. New aircraft commitments go to LEO.

VERTICAL 4 / 4

Maritime

GEO airtime revenue · incremental change, 2026–2030 · by region · US$M

COLLAPSING ON EVERY OCEAN

GEO maritime revenue falls roughly 70% in every basin as fleets move to LEO-anchored multi-orbit.

North America — GEO $286M (2025) → $213M (2030), −74M. Accessible core (contested).N America−$74MLatin America and Caribbean — GEO $542M (2025) → $508M (2030), −34M. Delayed penetration. SES: sanctioned: Cuba, Venezuela · compliance required: Haiti, Nicaragua.LatAm−$34MWestern Europe — GEO $139M (2025) → $124M (2030), −15M. Accessible core (contested).W Europe−$15MCentral Europe — GEO $79M (2025) → $66M (2030), −13M. Accessible core (contested). SES: compliance required: Moldova, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herz..C Europe−$13MRussia and Central Asia — GEO $173M (2025) → $176M (2030), +3M. Closed / sovereign. SES: compliance required: Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Russia.Russia & CAMiddle East and North Africa — GEO $212M (2025) → $171M (2030), −41M. Delayed penetration. SES: sanctioned: Iran · compliance required: Cyprus, Libya, Tunisia, Syria +4.MENA−$41MSub Saharan Africa — GEO $354M (2025) → $225M (2030), −129M. Low-ARPU. SES: compliance required: Burundi, Central African Rep., Eritrea, Guinea-Bissau +7.SSA−$129MSouth Asia — GEO $191M (2025) → $233M (2030), +41M. Capacity-constrained. SES: compliance required: Afghanistan.S Asia+$41MNorth East Asia — GEO $73M (2025) → $38M (2030), −36M. Accessible core (contested). SES: sanctioned: North Korea.NE Asia−$36MChina Area — GEO $117M (2025) → $131M (2030), +14M. Closed / sovereign. SES: compliance required: China.China+$14MSouth East Asia — GEO $407M (2025) → $493M (2030), +86M. Capacity-constrained. SES: compliance required: Myanmar.SE Asia+$86MOceania and Pacific — GEO $65M (2025) → $69M (2030), +4M. Low-ARPU.Oceania~$74M of GEO value shifts: North America → South East Asia~$36M of GEO value shifts: North East Asia → South East Asia~$15M of GEO value shifts: Western Europe → South East AsiaGEO growsGEO declinescompliance required (31)sanctioned (4)value migration

scroll — one vertical per step ↓

One pattern across all four verticals: GEO grows mainly in sanctioned or compliance-listed markets — China and Russia most visibly — and declines across the Western core. Aero's gain is usage on the installed base, not new sales. All regional figures are Novaspace's, reconciled to Boards 1–2.

Show the numbers — GEO by vertical × region, 2026–2030
RegionAccess classFixed data Δ ($M)Government Δ ($M)Aero Δ ($M)Maritime Δ ($M)SES sanctions list
North AmericaAccessible core (contested)-74-13780—
Latin America and CaribbeanDelayed penetration-34-480⛔ sanctioned: Cuba, Venezuela. Compliance required: Haiti, Nicaragua
Western EuropeAccessible core (contested)-15-13130—
Central EuropeAccessible core (contested)-13-1060Compliance required: Moldova, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herz.
Russia and Central AsiaClosed / sovereign3-3290Compliance required: Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Russia
Middle East and North AfricaDelayed penetration-41-4210⛔ sanctioned: Iran. Compliance required: Cyprus, Libya, Tunisia, Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen
Sub Saharan AfricaLow-ARPU-129-12-10Compliance required: Burundi, Central African Rep., Eritrea, Guinea-Bissau, Sudan, Dem. Rep. Congo, Guinea, Mali, Somalia, S. Sudan, Zimbabwe
South AsiaCapacity-constrained41-620Compliance required: Afghanistan
North East AsiaAccessible core (contested)-36-3670⛔ sanctioned: North Korea.
China AreaClosed / sovereign14-24270Compliance required: China
South East AsiaCapacity-constrained86-5170Compliance required: Myanmar
Oceania and PacificLow-ARPU4-1380—
OceansAccessible core (contested)0-527-242—
Sources & method

Source: Novaspace 2025, Satellite Connectivity & Video Market (data/raw/tam/ mirror), capacity revenues per application × region × orbit — data/tam/vertical_regional_revenue.csv. Figures are the 2025→2030 delta. GEO = widebeam FSS + GEO-HTS. Maritime is mapped by ocean basin (maritime_basins.csv). Arrows are directional, not contract-level. Reconciliation: all 162 (segment, orbit, year) cells sum to the Board 1–2 totals within $0.03M; sync_tam.py fails the build past 1% drift.

SES list: marked countries are from the SES Worldwide Sanctions Summary 2025 (ses_sanctions_2025.csv): 4 sanctioned (Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela; Crimea and Hong Kong are sub-national, not drawn), solid fill;31 compliance-required, hatched. Only listed countries are marked — never a whole region. The board makes no region-level claim about SES access; the list is country-level.

Access classes (green/red addressability) are desk judgment, editable in region_classes.csv, cross-checked against the SES list. "Russia and Central Asia" bundles sanctioned Russia with non-sanctioned republics — a macro-region limit.

BOARD 5 · THE VERDICT

The industry has already given its verdict

The fleet is ageing out. The order book shows what replaces it.

5a · End of life: GEO satellites are not being replaced

One dot per satellite, at its end-of-life year (launch + 15). Purple: reaches end of life 2025–2030. Magenta: replacement on order. About 1 in 4 retiring satellites has a replacement.

10202025–2030: 105 RETIRE · 28 REPLACEMENTS ORDERED20002005: 12 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1990, desk estimate) — already past2005: 12 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1990, desk estimate) — already past2005: 12 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1990, desk estimate) — already past2005: 12 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1990, desk estimate) — already past2005: 12 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1990, desk estimate) — already past2005: 12 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1990, desk estimate) — already past2005: 12 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1990, desk estimate) — already past2005: 12 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1990, desk estimate) — already past2005: 12 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1990, desk estimate) — already past2005: 12 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1990, desk estimate) — already past2005: 12 satellites reach end of design life 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past2010: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1995, desk estimate) — already past2010: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1995, desk estimate) — already past2010: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1995, desk estimate) — already past2010: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1995, desk estimate) — already past2010: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1995, desk estimate) — already past2010: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1995, desk estimate) — already past2010: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1995, desk estimate) — already past2010: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1995, desk estimate) — already past2010: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1995, desk estimate) — already past2010: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1995, desk estimate) — already past2010: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 1995, desk estimate) — already past2010: 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— already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past2015: 25 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2000, desk estimate) — already past20152016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2016: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2001, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2017: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2002, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2018: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2003, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2019: 18 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2004, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past2020: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2005, desk estimate) — already past20202021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2021: 21 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2006, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2022: 15 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2007, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2023: 24 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2008, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2024: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2009, desk estimate) — already past2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2010, desk estimate)2025: 3 operator-ordered replacements enter service (XM-10 · Nusantara Lima · Thuraya 4-NGS)2025: 3 operator-ordered replacements enter service (XM-10 · Nusantara Lima · Thuraya 4-NGS)2025: 3 operator-ordered replacements enter service (XM-10 · Nusantara Lima · Thuraya 4-NGS)20252026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2011, desk estimate)2026: 7 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 25 · XM-11 · JCSat-31 · Intelsat 41 · Intelsat 42 (SD Sat 1) · Intelsat 43 (SD Sat 2) · Intelsat 44)2026: 7 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 25 · XM-11 · JCSat-31 · Intelsat 41 · Intelsat 42 (SD Sat 1) · Intelsat 43 (SD Sat 2) · Intelsat 44)2026: 7 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 25 · XM-11 · JCSat-31 · Intelsat 41 · Intelsat 42 (SD Sat 1) · Intelsat 43 (SD Sat 2) · Intelsat 44)2026: 7 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 25 · XM-11 · JCSat-31 · Intelsat 41 · Intelsat 42 (SD Sat 1) · Intelsat 43 (SD Sat 2) · Intelsat 44)2026: 7 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 25 · XM-11 · JCSat-31 · Intelsat 41 · Intelsat 42 (SD Sat 1) · Intelsat 43 (SD Sat 2) · Intelsat 44)2026: 7 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 25 · XM-11 · JCSat-31 · Intelsat 41 · Intelsat 42 (SD Sat 1) · Intelsat 43 (SD Sat 2) · Intelsat 44)2026: 7 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 25 · XM-11 · JCSat-31 · Intelsat 41 · Intelsat 42 (SD Sat 1) · Intelsat 43 (SD Sat 2) · Intelsat 44)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 20 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2012, desk estimate)2027: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (XM-12 · Al Yah 4 · JCSat-32 · Superbird 9 · Thaicom 4R/10 · Astra 1Q / SES 25 · Intelsat 45 · SES 26)2027: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (XM-12 · Al Yah 4 · JCSat-32 · Superbird 9 · Thaicom 4R/10 · Astra 1Q / SES 25 · Intelsat 45 · SES 26)2027: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (XM-12 · Al Yah 4 · JCSat-32 · Superbird 9 · Thaicom 4R/10 · Astra 1Q / SES 25 · Intelsat 45 · SES 26)2027: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (XM-12 · Al Yah 4 · JCSat-32 · Superbird 9 · Thaicom 4R/10 · Astra 1Q / SES 25 · Intelsat 45 · SES 26)2027: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (XM-12 · Al Yah 4 · JCSat-32 · Superbird 9 · Thaicom 4R/10 · Astra 1Q / SES 25 · Intelsat 45 · SES 26)2027: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (XM-12 · Al Yah 4 · JCSat-32 · Superbird 9 · Thaicom 4R/10 · Astra 1Q / SES 25 · Intelsat 45 · SES 26)2027: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (XM-12 · Al Yah 4 · JCSat-32 · Superbird 9 · Thaicom 4R/10 · Astra 1Q / SES 25 · Intelsat 45 · SES 26)2027: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (XM-12 · Al Yah 4 · JCSat-32 · Superbird 9 · Thaicom 4R/10 · Astra 1Q / SES 25 · Intelsat 45 · SES 26)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2013, desk estimate)2028: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 26 · Inmarsat 8 F1 · Inmarsat 8 F2 · Inmarsat 8 F3 · Al Yah 5 · Optus 11 · Thor 8 · Intelsat 14+R)2028: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 26 · Inmarsat 8 F1 · Inmarsat 8 F2 · Inmarsat 8 F3 · Al Yah 5 · Optus 11 · Thor 8 · Intelsat 14+R)2028: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 26 · Inmarsat 8 F1 · Inmarsat 8 F2 · Inmarsat 8 F3 · Al Yah 5 · Optus 11 · Thor 8 · Intelsat 14+R)2028: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 26 · Inmarsat 8 F1 · Inmarsat 8 F2 · Inmarsat 8 F3 · Al Yah 5 · Optus 11 · Thor 8 · Intelsat 14+R)2028: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 26 · Inmarsat 8 F1 · Inmarsat 8 F2 · Inmarsat 8 F3 · Al Yah 5 · Optus 11 · Thor 8 · Intelsat 14+R)2028: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 26 · Inmarsat 8 F1 · Inmarsat 8 F2 · Inmarsat 8 F3 · Al Yah 5 · Optus 11 · Thor 8 · Intelsat 14+R)2028: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 26 · Inmarsat 8 F1 · Inmarsat 8 F2 · Inmarsat 8 F3 · Al Yah 5 · Optus 11 · Thor 8 · Intelsat 14+R)2028: 8 operator-ordered replacements enter service (Echostar 26 · Inmarsat 8 F1 · Inmarsat 8 F2 · Inmarsat 8 F3 · Al Yah 5 · Optus 11 · Thor 8 · Intelsat 14+R)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 16 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2014, desk estimate)2029: 1 operator-ordered replacement enter service (Eutelsat 16A+R)2030: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2015, Novaspace)2030: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2015, Novaspace)2030: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2015, Novaspace)2030: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2015, Novaspace)2030: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2015, Novaspace)2030: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2015, Novaspace)2030: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2015, Novaspace)2030: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2015, Novaspace)2030: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2015, Novaspace)2030: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2015, Novaspace)2030: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2015, Novaspace)2030: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2015, Novaspace)2030: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2015, Novaspace)2030: 1 operator-ordered replacement enter service (Eutelsat 3B+R)20302031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2031: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2016, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 19 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2017, Novaspace)2032: 1 operator-ordered replacement enter service (Eutelsat 70B+R)2033: 9 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2018, Novaspace)2033: 9 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2018, Novaspace)2033: 9 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2018, Novaspace)2033: 9 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2018, Novaspace)2033: 9 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2018, Novaspace)2033: 9 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2018, Novaspace)2033: 9 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2018, Novaspace)2033: 9 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2018, Novaspace)2033: 9 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2018, Novaspace)2034: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2019, Novaspace)2034: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2019, Novaspace)2034: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2019, Novaspace)2034: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2019, Novaspace)2034: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2019, Novaspace)2034: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2019, Novaspace)2034: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2019, Novaspace)2034: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2019, Novaspace)2034: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2019, Novaspace)2034: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2019, Novaspace)2034: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2019, Novaspace)2034: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2019, Novaspace)2034: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2019, Novaspace)2035: 8 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2020, Novaspace)2035: 8 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2020, Novaspace)2035: 8 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2020, Novaspace)2035: 8 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2020, Novaspace)2035: 8 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2020, Novaspace)2035: 8 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2020, Novaspace)2035: 8 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2020, Novaspace)2035: 8 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2020, Novaspace)20352036: 5 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2021, Novaspace)2036: 5 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2021, Novaspace)2036: 5 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2021, Novaspace)2036: 5 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2021, Novaspace)2036: 5 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2021, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2037: 17 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2022, Novaspace)2038: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2023, Novaspace)2038: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2023, Novaspace)2038: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2023, Novaspace)2038: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2023, Novaspace)2038: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2023, Novaspace)2038: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2023, Novaspace)2038: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2023, Novaspace)2038: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2023, Novaspace)2038: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2023, Novaspace)2038: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2023, Novaspace)2038: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2023, Novaspace)2038: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2023, Novaspace)2038: 13 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2023, Novaspace)2039: 10 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2024, Novaspace)2039: 10 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2024, Novaspace)2039: 10 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2024, Novaspace)2039: 10 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2024, Novaspace)2039: 10 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2024, Novaspace)2039: 10 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2024, Novaspace)2039: 10 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2024, Novaspace)2039: 10 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2024, Novaspace)2039: 10 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2024, Novaspace)2039: 10 satellites reach end of design life (launched 2024, Novaspace)2040END OF LIFE = LAUNCH YEAR + 15 · PRE-2015 LAUNCH YEARS ARE DESK ESTIMATES (faded dots = already retired) · HOVER A COLUMN

105 satellites launched 2010–2015 reach end of life by 2030. The entire market has ordered 28 replacements — 1 for every4 retiring. The fleet is shrinking, not renewing.

5b · The incoming capacity, reconciled against 5a

Every GEO comms satellite entering service 2025–2030, by buyer. Dark grey: state, agency and military. Light grey: national champions — regional operators (JSAT, Space42, Thaicom, Optus), captive even when private. Blue: SES–Intelsat. Amber: commercial replacements. Magenta: new commercial capacity.

State agency & military (locked out)National champions — regional operators (locked out)SES–IntelsatGlobal commercial — replacementGlobal commercial — new capacity
816242025 · State agency & military (locked out) (12): Dror 1 (PR-8000) · PTS-P (free flyer) · Spainsat NG-1 · Spainsat NG-2 · WGS-11 · Zhongxing 3B (ChinaSat 3B) · Chinasat 10R / ZX 10R · Chinasat 27 · Chinasat 9C · GSAT 22 · Tianlian-2 04 (TL 2D) · Tianlian-2 05 (TL 2E)2025 · National champions — regional operators (locked out) (3): Nusantara Lima · Thaicom 9 by Astranis · Thuraya 4-NGS2025 · Global commercial — replacement (1): XM-102025 · Global commercial — new capacity (5): Astranis-4/APCO-1 · Astranis-7/Orbith-1 · Astranis-8/APCO-2 · Astranis-9/Orbits Corp · Viasat 3 1 EMEA2025212026 · State agency & military (locked out) (9): ESS-prototype · GSAT 7B (GSAT Milsatcom-1) · Sicral 3a · Skynet 6A · ETS-9 · GSAT 32 / GSAT-N3 · IDRSS-1 (CMS-04) · Yamal-501 · Yenisey A1 (Luch-4)2026 · National champions — regional operators (locked out) (1): JCSat-312026 · SES–Intelsat (4): Intelsat 41 · Intelsat 42 (SD Sat 1) · Intelsat 43 (SD Sat 2) · Intelsat 442026 · Global commercial — replacement (2): Echostar 25 · XM-112026 · Global commercial — new capacity (2): Inmarsat 7F3 · Viasat 3 2 Asia2026182027 · State agency & military (locked out) (7): Sicral 3b · Arabsat 7A · Arsat-SG1 · Chinggis · Express AMU 4 · GSAT 23 · Venesat-2 (Guaicaipuro)2027 · National champions — regional operators (locked out) (4): Al Yah 4 · JCSat-32 · Superbird 9 · Thaicom 4R/102027 · SES–Intelsat (3): Astra 1Q / SES 25 · Intelsat 45 · SES 262027 · Global commercial — replacement (1): XM-122027 · Global commercial — new capacity (3): Astranis-5/Andesat-1 · Inmarsat 7F1 · Inmarsat 7F22027182028 · State agency & military (locked out) (3): ComsatBW-3A · Cheollian-3 (GEO-KOMPSAT-3) · IDRSS-22028 · National champions — regional operators (locked out) (4): Al Yah 5 · Optus 11 · Thor 8 · Uzma/ReOrbit2028 · SES–Intelsat (1): Intelsat 14+R2028 · Global commercial — replacement (4): Echostar 26 · Inmarsat 8 F1 · Inmarsat 8 F2 · Inmarsat 8 F32028 · Global commercial — new capacity (2): Astranis/Chunghwa · Eutelsat Flexsat Americas2028142029 · State agency & military (locked out) (6): ComsatBW-3B · WGS-12 · Express AMU 6 · Nigcomsat-2 · TKSAT-2 · Yamal-5022029 · Global commercial — replacement (1): Eutelsat 16A+R202972030 · State agency & military (locked out) (2): Express AMU 5-1 · Express AMU 5-22030 · Global commercial — replacement (1): Eutelsat 3B+R2030 · Global commercial — new capacity (1): NEASTAR-120304IN-SERVICE YEAR = NOVASPACE LAUNCH YEAR · HOVER A BLOCK FOR THE SATELLITES

82

GEO comms satellites come online
worldwide, 2025–2030 (5 more after)

51

are locked out — 39 state, agency & military
plus 12 national-champion regional operators

28

are operator replacements — the count 5a
weighs against the 105 retirements
(8 SES–Intelsat among them)

13

are new capacity — 6 micro-GEOs,
5 of 7 conventional are Viasat's own.
The rest of the world ordered 2.

Only operator orders signal demand; state, champion and replacement orders do not. On that reading, five years of new open-market GEO demand beyond Viasat's own program comes to Eutelsat Flexsat Americas and NEASTAR-1.

Show all 87 backlog satellites — buyer, country, flags
YearSatelliteOperatorClassCountryReplacementVideo/radioNew demandStarlink in country
2025Dror 1 (PR-8000)Israel Gov.state / militaryIsraelyes——no
2025PTS-P (free flyer)US Space Forcestate / militaryUnited States———yes
2025Spainsat NG-1Hisdesatstate / militarySpainyes——yes
2025Spainsat NG-2Hisdesatstate / militarySpainyes——yes
2025WGS-11USAFstate / militaryUnited States———yes
2025Zhongxing 3B (ChinaSat 3B)PLAstate / militaryChina———no
2025Astranis-4/APCO-1Astraniscommercial — newMexico——YESyes
2025Astranis-7/Orbith-1Astraniscommercial — newArgentina——YESyes
2025Astranis-8/APCO-2Astraniscommercial — newMexico——YESyes
2025Astranis-9/Orbits CorpAstraniscommercial — newPhilippines——YESyes
2025Viasat 3 1 EMEAViasatcommercial — newUnited States——YESyes
2025XM-10Sirius XM Radiocommercial — replacementUnited Statesyesyes—yes
2025Nusantara LimaPasifik Satelit Nusantaranational champion (regional op.)Indonesiayes——yes
2025Thaicom 9 by AstranisThaicomnational champion (regional op.)Thailand———no
2025Thuraya 4-NGSSpace42national champion (regional op.)UAEyes——no
2025Chinasat 10R / ZX 10RChina Satcomstate / militaryChinayes——no
2025Chinasat 27China Satcomstate / militaryChina———no
2025Chinasat 9CChina Satcomstate / militaryChinayesyes—no
2025GSAT 22ISROstate / militaryIndia———no
2025Tianlian-2 04 (TL 2D)CASCstate / militaryChina———no
2025Tianlian-2 05 (TL 2E)CASCstate / militaryChina———no
2026ESS-prototypeUSAFstate / militaryUnited States———yes
2026GSAT 7B (GSAT Milsatcom-1)Indian Armystate / militaryIndia———no
2026Sicral 3aItalian MoDstate / militaryItalyyes——yes
2026Skynet 6AADS UKstate / militaryUnited Kingdomyes——yes
2026Echostar 25Echostarcommercial — replacementUnited Statesyes——yes
2026Inmarsat 7F3Inmarsatcommercial — newUnited Kingdom——YESyes
2026Viasat 3 2 AsiaViasatcommercial — newUnited States——YESyes
2026XM-11Sirius XM Radiocommercial — replacementUnited Statesyesyes—yes
2026JCSat-31Jsatnational champion (regional op.)Japanyes——yes
2026Intelsat 41IntelsatSES–IntelsatUnited Statesyes——yes
2026Intelsat 42 (SD Sat 1)IntelsatSES–IntelsatUnited Statesyes——yes
2026Intelsat 43 (SD Sat 2)IntelsatSES–IntelsatUnited Statesyes——yes
2026Intelsat 44IntelsatSES–IntelsatUnited Statesyes——yes
2026ETS-9JAXAstate / militaryJapan———yes
2026GSAT 32 / GSAT-N3ISROstate / militaryIndiayes——no
2026IDRSS-1 (CMS-04)ISROstate / militaryIndia———no
2026Yamal-501Gazpromstate / militaryRussiayes——no
2026Yenisey A1 (Luch-4)Roskosmosstate / militaryRussia———no
2027Sicral 3bItalian MoDstate / militaryItalyyes——yes
2027Astranis-5/Andesat-1Astraniscommercial — newPeru——YESyes
2027Inmarsat 7F1Inmarsatcommercial — newUnited Kingdom——YESyes
2027Inmarsat 7F2Inmarsatcommercial — newUnited Kingdom——YESyes
2027XM-12Sirius XM Radiocommercial — replacementUnited Statesyesyes—yes
2027Al Yah 4Space42national champion (regional op.)UAEyes——no
2027JCSat-32Jsatnational champion (regional op.)Japanyes——yes
2027Superbird 9Jsatnational champion (regional op.)Japanyes——yes
2027Thaicom 4R/10Thaicomnational champion (regional op.)Thailandyes——no
2027Astra 1Q / SES 25SESSES–IntelsatLuxembourgyesyes—yes
2027Intelsat 45IntelsatSES–IntelsatUnited Statesyes——yes
2027SES 26SESSES–IntelsatLuxembourgyes——yes
2027Arabsat 7AArabSatstate / militarySaudi Arabiayes——no
2027Arsat-SG1ArSatstate / militaryArgentina———yes
2027ChinggisMDDCstate / militaryMongolia———yes
2027Express AMU 4RSCCstate / militaryRussiayes——no
2027GSAT 23ISROstate / militaryIndia———no
2027Venesat-2 (Guaicaipuro)ABAEstate / militaryVenezuelayes——no
2028ComsatBW-3ABundeswehrstate / militaryGermanyyes——yes
2028Astranis/ChunghwaAstraniscommercial — newTaiwan——YESno
2028Echostar 26Echostarcommercial — replacementUnited Statesyes——yes
2028Eutelsat Flexsat AmericasEutelsat Groupcommercial — newFrance——YESyes
2028Inmarsat 8 F1Inmarsatcommercial — replacementUnited Kingdomyes——yes
2028Inmarsat 8 F2Inmarsatcommercial — replacementUnited Kingdomyes——yes
2028Inmarsat 8 F3Inmarsatcommercial — replacementUnited Kingdomyes——yes
2028Al Yah 5Space42national champion (regional op.)UAEyes——no
2028Optus 11Optusnational champion (regional op.)Australiayes——yes
2028Thor 8Space Norwaynational champion (regional op.)Norwayyes——yes
2028Uzma/ReOrbitUzma Berhadnational champion (regional op.)Malaysia———yes
2028Intelsat 14+RIntelsatSES–IntelsatUnited Statesyes——yes
2028Cheollian-3 (GEO-KOMPSAT-3)KARIstate / militarySouth Korea———yes
2028IDRSS-2ISROstate / militaryIndia———no
2029ComsatBW-3BBundeswehrstate / militaryGermanyyes——yes
2029WGS-12USAFstate / militaryUnited States———yes
2029Eutelsat 16A+REutelsat Groupcommercial — replacementFranceyesyes—yes
2029Express AMU 6RSCCstate / militaryRussiayes——no
2029Nigcomsat-2Nigcomsatstate / militaryNigeriayes——yes
2029TKSAT-2ABEstate / militaryBoliviayes——no
2029Yamal-502Gazpromstate / militaryRussiayes——no
2030Eutelsat 3B+REutelsat Groupcommercial — replacementFranceyes——yes
2030NEASTAR-1ASTRUMcommercial — newTBD——YESno
2030Express AMU 5-1RSCCstate / militaryRussiayes——no
2030Express AMU 5-2RSCCstate / militaryRussiayes——no
2031ESS-1US Space Forcestate / militaryUnited States———yes
2032Eutelsat 70B+REutelsat Groupcommercial — replacementFranceyes——yes
2032Arsat-SG2ArSatstate / militaryArgentina———yes
2033ESS-2US Space Forcestate / militaryUnited States———yes
2033LuxGovsat 2LuxGovSatstate / militaryLuxembourgyes——yes

5c · Who is ordering — country by country, against Starlink's map

The same 82 satellites by the ordering operator's home country. Bar color shows Starlink availability today (blue = yes, grey = no). The pink segment marks the 13 genuinely new commercial orders — the only real GEO demand — so you can see exactly where they come from.

🇺🇸United States17Starlink ✓
🇷🇺Russia7no Starlink
🇬🇧United Kingdom7Starlink ✓
🇨🇳China6no Starlink
🇮🇳India6no Starlink
🇯🇵Japan4Starlink ✓
🇫🇷France3Starlink ✓
🇦🇪UAE3no Starlink
🇦🇷Argentina2Starlink ✓
🇩🇪Germany2Starlink ✓
🇮🇹Italy2Starlink ✓
🇱🇺Luxembourg2Starlink ✓
🇲🇽Mexico2Starlink ✓
🇪🇸Spain2Starlink ✓
🇹🇭Thailand2no Starlink
🇦🇺Australia1Starlink ✓
🇧🇴Bolivia1no Starlink
🇮🇩Indonesia1Starlink ✓
🇮🇱Israel1no Starlink
🇲🇾Malaysia1Starlink ✓
🇲🇳Mongolia1Starlink ✓
🇳🇬Nigeria1Starlink ✓
🇳🇴Norway1Starlink ✓
🇵🇪Peru1Starlink ✓
🇵🇭Philippines1Starlink ✓
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia1no Starlink
🇰🇷South Korea1Starlink ✓
🇹🇼Taiwan1no Starlink
🏳️TBD1no Starlink
🇻🇪Venezuela1no Starlink

Total: 82 satellites, 30 countries — with the 13 new commercial orders in pink.

WHERE THE 82 WILL EARN

52in countries where
Starlink already sells

30in countries without
Starlink — nearly all state orders

24 of the 28 operator replacements and 11 of the 13 new-capacity satellites will earn in countries where Starlink already operates. The open market's residual GEO business lands under direct LEO competition; the protected orders belong to states.

The no-Starlink column is almost entirely state and champion demand — China, India, Russia, the UAE. GEO is what a state buys when it cannot, or will not, buy LEO.

Sources & method

Source: Novaspace 2025, Satellite Connectivity & Video Market (data/raw/tam/ mirror), satellites built & launched 2025 — per-satellite backlog in data/tam/geo_backlog_detail.csv (GEO + Telecom; launch year, operator, mass, design life are Novaspace's). Buyer class, replacement/video flags, country and Starlink availability are desk judgment, editable per satellite. Fleet build-years in geo_fleet_age.csv: 2015+ Novaspace, 1990–2014 desk estimates (flagged). End of life = launch year + 15, the fleet norm. Active-GEO total ~560: McDowell GCAT, Aug 2026.

Excluded from "demand": video/DTH and radio continuity, "+R" and fleet-refresh replacements, C-band swaps, state and military programs, data relay.

IMPLICATIONS

What this means for SES

1

GEO growth peaked in 2025. Every future dollar goes to NGSO.

The market keeps growing — $4.2B to $13.5B — but all of that growth is NGSO. GEO is flat-to-down from here.

Action: to capture any future growth, SES must deploy NGSO capacity — built natively or bought through third parties.

2

GEO is structurally down ~$514M, but pockets of growth remain by segment — with a caveat.

Applications do not move together. Some, like aero, still grow. But LEO is the mainstay there; the GEO growth rides on top of a LEO cell, not as standalone GEO capacity SES can sell on its own.

Action: deliver that GEO growth as part of a multi-orbit package and test whether it is feasible to pair GEO with LEO on one terminal — a dual-beam antenna would let SES capture the aero growth instead of ceding it to LEO-only.

3

Pockets also remain by region — but they are shifting to markets SES cannot reach.

In fixed data, growth is moving out of SES's served markets and into ones where SES has few assets or no access — China and Russia foremost.

Action: consider fleet optimization and partnerships to serve these regions, where SES cannot operate directly.

The order book confirms it: 105 commercial GEOs retire by 2030 against 28 ordered replacements, and only 13 of 82 incoming satellites are new open-market capacity. Operator detail: Peer Comparison.

Sources & method

Editable backend: every number reads from CSVs in data/tam/— edit them directly in GitHub, run python3 scripts/tam/sync_tam.py to derive and validate, then rebuild. Column definitions and desk assumptions are documented in data/tam/README.md. Every change lands as a reviewable one-line diff.

Sources: Novaspace 2025, Satellite Connectivity & Video Market (data/raw/tam/ mirror); operator earnings calls (data/tam/peer_raw/). Licence: (c) Novaspace 2025 — licensed data, internal desk use only. Do not republish.