AST SpaceMobile is executing a well-capitalized, technically real direct-to-device build-out — not vaporware — but its commercial ramp is lumpier than the launch-cadence story implies, and any AST-sourced "external validation" claim keeps following a walk-back pattern; credible confirmation exists only where a counterparty states it independently — AT&T names "the AST offering" for 2027, Verizon and T-Mobile confirm the JV but name no tech partner, and T-Mobile's own D2D stays Starlink-exclusive through 2026.
Both original execution falsifiers have reported: BlueBirds 11-13 launched on schedule Aug 5, and the Aug 10 Q2 print was mixed — guidance and the ~45-satellite target held, yet revenue missed consensus and BlueBirds 14-16 stayed unlaunched, confirming Farrar's Aug 1 skepticism. Capital access is not the constraint; launch-vehicle diversification is — every BlueBird 8-13 has flown on Falcon 9, New Glenn's only 2026 flight failed, and AST's CFO now floats owning launch capacity outright. International spectrum stays leased/partnered after the FCC dismissed AST's own international 2GHz bid with prejudice. Lynk Global, dormant most of 2026, re-emerged this run: it merged with Omnispace into Elveo Mobile (closed Aug 14), with SES named a major strategic investor — a distinct D2D bet this dossier now tracks directly.
(a) Japan's MIC (not CIAJ) confirms RAST Corporation as J-LEO recipient, or AST secures a named IRIS² line item
neither has happened, and a Jan 30, 2026 MIC press release shows the ministry funds CIAJ as fund-administrator and delegates recipient selection to it — a structural reason MIC may never issue the "MIC names RAST" release this falsifier anticipated
(b) AST's Q3 2026 print repeats the Q2 revenue-miss pattern, or BlueBirds 14-16 still haven't shipped and launched by then
Q3 (due ~Nov 9) hasn't reported, AST's Aug 16 comment confirms BlueBirds 14-16 remain unlaunched — Farrar's Aug 22 read of the same language as understated slippage is the first analyst corroboration
Revenue missed consensus while FY2026 guidance held, unchanged; the ~45-satellite early-2027 target was reaffirmed, excluding New Glenn, and BlueBirds 14-16 were still "ready to ship shortly," not shipped. No update has surfaced through Aug 23.
He reads AST's own "10 launches... every month or 2"/"~45 satellites... early 2027" language as effectively "no confirmed slots"/"mid-year at best," the sharpest voice yet against THESIS falsifier (b); separately dismisses retail chatter of a T-Mobile/AST tie-up or an AT&T/Verizon-funded Grain bid — no carrier or company statement supports either.
Elveo Mobile remains this dossier's only Lynk development, no AST reaction, satellite count still unreconciled (open question 12); Grain's 800MHz auction still targets preliminary offers in early September, unconfirmed by AST (open question 13).
T-Mobile's Jul 23 call still confirms the JV without naming AST; Japan's J-LEO selection still routes through CIAJ (open question 1); Ligado/ Inmarsat's compelled-cooperation order stays in force; and the three-docket FCC/EDGAR negative extends through Aug 23.
Capital is not the constraint. AST has raised five convertible-note tranches in eighteen months (Jan 2025 $460M/4.25%; mid-2025 ~$575M at an effective ~$120/sh strike; Oct 2025 ~$1.6B combined proceeds/2.00% 10-yr; Feb 2026 ~$1.06B/2.25%; Jul 2026 $1.15B/1.625%/2034, the fifth upsized via a fully-exercised $150M over-allotment) at progressively better terms as the equity story de-risked — pro forma cash was "over $3.7 billion" as of the Aug 10 call — a capital-markets access curve moving the right direction, the opposite of the DISTRESS-logic sellers tracked elsewhere.
Vertical integration cuts both ways on cost and schedule. Manufacturing is vertically integrated (~95% of BOM produced in-house across composite structures, phased-array "microns," and now AST's own AST5000 ASIC), which is the source of both its cost discipline and its schedule risk: internal engineering bottlenecks (composite stacking strength, ASIC bring-up) have each cost roughly a quarter, quietly, without management ever framing the slip as a miss until an analyst said it directly on the March 2026 call. The Aug 10 print extends the pattern to revenue: Q2's $31.5M missed consensus by ~10%, absorbed into an unchanged FY guide rather than flagged as a miss on the call itself.
The vehicle-agnostic launch strategy has narrowed. Launch is where the vehicle-agnostic strategy has visibly narrowed — and where AST's own Aug 10 language marks a real shift from its May 2026 framing. CSO Wisniewski then quantified New Glenn as a scaling hedge on the 2026-05-18 call: 3 BlueBirds/Falcon 9, ramping "4 growing to 8" on New Glenn, plus 5/Vulcan, 2/ISRO LVM3, 3/Mitsubishi Heavy, 5/Ariane 6. New Glenn's only 2026 flight carrying an AST payload (BlueBird 7) failed on ascent; its booster has landed successfully twice in three flights, so the first stage is proven while the upper stage (BE-3U) is not — root cause (a main-oxygen-valve fault on the separate May 28 pad explosion) named Aug 5, retrofit hardware due end-August, return-to-flight still "before end of year," and the shared industry launch mechanics live in a dedicated dossier. By Aug 10, management has explicitly stopped counting on New Glenn for the near-term 45-satellite/early-2027 target ("we're not betting on that in our numbers"), instead citing "10 launches booked with 2 different providers." AST is the second constellation operator, after Amazon Leo, gated by a single vehicle's cadence in practice — every BlueBird 8-13 has flown on Falcon 9 — but AST's own Aug 10 CFO language, for the first time, floats "partnerships and/or acquisitions" to directly own launch capacity rather than wait for New Glenn to requalify, corroborating (not confirming a target for) Farrar's Jul 18-19 speculation. On Aug 16, Wisniewski named a specific non-SpaceX/non-Blue-Origin hedge for the first time — ULA's Vulcan is under active consideration, with 9 more launches still needed to close the 45-satellite target — though Vulcan itself has been NSSL-grounded since a Feb 25 SRB anomaly and shares the same BE-4 engine root-cause retrofit as New Glenn, so naming it as a hedge does not yet resolve AST's single-vehicle dependence in practice.
Manufacturing floor space is not the bottleneck. Manufacturing footprint stands past 500,000 sq ft globally (>2,250 employees), with Midland, TX (400,000 sq ft, ~1,800 jobs, $66M incentive) a second major US site; production advanced from unit 42 (Aug 5) to unit 46 (Aug 10) at a stated ~6/month cadence, evidence the line itself is not the near-term bottleneck — cadence and cost, not floor space, remain the binding constraints. Cost curve: $21-23M per satellite (now stated across "over 90 BlueBird satellites," not just Block 2; ~2,400 sq ft, 3.5x Block 1's size, 10x its capacity) has held flat since a tariff-driven step-up in Q1 2025 — one of the few AST guidance figures that has NOT drifted. Mid-band Micron production is set to begin later in 2026 for launch "very early in '27," and a 3rd-generation ASIC is planned to unify L-band MSS, mid-band and C-band on one chip — the spectrum roadmap is now several bands ahead of what's flying.
Leased spectrum, not owned — until a first reported bid to change that. Spectrum access has been a leased/partnered model, not an owned one, per DA-26-398 — domestic cellular bands leased from AT&T/ Verizon, Rakuten's 700MHz in Japan, Vodafone's EU holdings, with Ligado's pending hosted-payload bid (up to 45MHz of L-band MSS on an 80+-year term, for ~$550M total consideration if it closes) a possible L-band addition. That model produced AST's first live non-US deployment — Rakuten's 700MHz enabled a Japan D2C activation Aug 4, ahead of AST's own guided US date — and, as of Aug 20-21, AST's first reported bid to own US spectrum outright: Grain Management opened a competitive $6B sale of 800MHz licenses bought from T-Mobile, naming both AST and SpaceX as bidders, FCC-targeted to close Nov 5. AST's own Aug 14 FCC test authority on the same band precedes that report by a week. Farrar's unconfirmed Aug 19 account of an AST-Grain deadlock — AST offering equity, Grain wanting cash — is doctrine-input tier only, but cuts both ways on the capital-is-not-the-constraint read above: preferring equity over cash from a $3.7B-liquidity balance sheet reads as discipline or as Grain doubting ASTS stock as consideration, and stays unresolved either way until the auction closes or lapses by Nov 5.
CIAJ, not MIC, is the load-bearing distinction. Japan: a Jan 30, 2026 MIC press release (soumu.go.jp, primary) shows MIC funds CIAJ as fund-administrator (基金設置法人) and delegates recipient selection to it. CIAJ selected RAST June 30, but no soumu.go.jp release has since named RAST, Rakuten, or AST — open question 1's concrete evidence to watch. AST's own Aug 10 language and Rakuten CEO Mikitani's same-day Starlink comparison are in the tracked record but sharpen, without resolving, open questions 1 and 10. Japan's sovereign-constellation side is tracked separately.
Satellite Connect Europe's ops center sits in Germany. EU: headquartered in Luxembourg — SES's own home jurisdiction — but its satellite operations center sits across the border in Germany (FCC DA-26-391, fn.9, citing a Nov 2025 Vodafone/AST release), "subject to the outcome of any future Commission rulemakings." As of Aug 6, AST names concrete integration-testing partners for the first time, including three of Europe's largest MNOs beyond founding partner Vodafone — past the vague "21/27-state MOU interest" figure. IRIS² non-denials persist unchanged; the IRIS²/SpaceRISE mechanics live in their own dossier.
The regulatory tailwind is real but narrower than advertised. US: FCC DA-26-391 is the actual base authorization, distinct from the Apr 22 SCS lease-waiver grant and the Apr 23 international-2GHz denial (DA-26-398) — three separate actions the same week, easy to conflate as one "FCC approves AST" event. Government contracting continues to scale (cross-ref Rocket Lab/Iridium); both open Space Bureau dockets stay undecided, a checked-clean negative through Aug 23. Ligado's litigation angle has two threads: the Inmarsat Delaware appeal keeps Inmarsat's compelled cooperation live, not blocking Ligado/AST coordination; Farrar's unconfirmed Aug 19 report of renewed DoD-Ligado settlement chatter is a negative read for AST's hosted-payload economics if it ends with Ligado surrendering, not monetizing, its L-band rights — doctrine-input tier, no primary confirmation either way.
AST's S-band claim is tracked in a separate dossier. Its S-band ITU-priority purchase and weak analyst-assessed value are tracked separately, not restated here. DA-26-398 confirms SpaceX's (via EchoStar) international 2GHz rights survive while AST's competing claim does not.
All three carriers confirm the JV; only AT&T names AST. The reported AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile D2D JV is confirmed by all three carriers on their own Q2 2026 calls, but only AT&T's Stankey names AST as tech partner; Verizon's Schulman and T-Mobile's Gopalan confirm the JV without naming a partner, and T-Mobile's own D2D stays on Starlink under an exclusivity "does not end this year." Farrar's Aug 21 dismissal of retail speculation that T-Mobile is "about to partner with AST" is consistent with this read — its technology-partner mix is split, not AST-monolithic.
Lynk consolidates into Elveo, with SES as a named investor. The non-AST D2D leg: Lynk Global and Omnispace closed their merger Aug 14, announced Aug 17 as Elveo Mobile — a distinct stack running on Omnispace's own licensed S-band MSS spectrum and a 320-satellite plan rather than AST's leased-cellular-band model. SES is named a "major strategic investor" alongside five financial backers; a SatNews claim that SES "played a foundational role" is single-sourced and unconfirmed by SES's own release — same caution this desk applies to SatNews's Gulf/Equatys coverage. Neither release names an investment amount or governance right.
Thread: "AST SpaceMobile (Rakuten JV) / Lynk" (priors.md, POSITIONING tier). SES's stake here just turned direct: Elveo Mobile — Lynk's merger with Omnispace — names SES a major strategic investor, giving SES real equity and go-to-market exposure to a distinct D2D stack (Omnispace's own licensed S-band MSS spectrum, a 320-satellite plan) rather than only the weak EU 2GHz co-bidder position Rayal ranks "furthest from the finish line" of four — that ranking predates the merger and is now stale there, not here. SES's own framing (multi-orbit GEO/MEO plus Elveo's LEO) reads as a genuine service-integration bet, not a passive spectrum hedge, though neither side discloses investment size or governance rights.
AST's own execution read stays mixed, not a clean "unstoppable" story: Q2's revenue miss and the BlueBird 14-16 shipment slip are the first hard evidence of commercial-ramp friction a purely bullish read would miss, while AST's named EU integration-testing partners still sharpen the crowd-out risk to any SES-backed EU D2D pitch — several anchor MNOs are already engaged with AST's rival JV. On the US carrier JV, AT&T is AST's confirmed tech partner but T-Mobile's own commitment runs through Starlink at least through 2026 — the JV splits its technology exposure rather than concentrating it behind AST. DA-26-398 removes AST as an international 2GHz claimant, leaving SpaceX/EchoStar the confirmed holder — context, not an outcome change, for SES's own EU contest.
Watch: Elveo's own spectrum-consolidation and constellation-deployment filings as a new primary-source line for SES's D2D exposure; any named AST/Satellite Connect Europe line item in an IRIS²/SpaceRISE document; whether Verizon or T-Mobile independently name AST; and AST's Q3 2026 print for whether the revenue-miss pattern repeats.
AST's own SEC filings (8-Ks, EDGAR mirror) remain the highest-value source, repeatedly outperforming secondary press: Japanese trade press ran "awarded"-level language on the J-LEO subsidy for two weeks before AST's own July 15 8-K supplied the "preliminary selection... no assurance" hedge. Treat any Japanese-press "selected"/"awarded" framing as provisional until an AST 8-K or a MIC (not CIAJ) primary release confirms it.
CSO Wisniewski's non-denial formula ("we don't want to comment on new contract awards... we think we're very well positioned") recurs verbatim-close across IRIS² and JV questions — a tell something is in negotiation, not proof of outcome. Checking all three D2D-JV carriers' calls, not just AT&T's, showed T-Mobile's own D2D stays contractually bound to Starlink beyond 2026 — naming only the one carrier that confirms your subject understates how heterogeneous a reported multi-party JV can be.
Company guidance carries a mild, standing one-quarter optimism bias: manufacturing cadence and commercial-service dates have each slipped roughly a quarter across five straight calls, unacknowledged as a miss until forced (March 2026 call); the Aug 10 print extended the bias to revenue (~10% consensus miss absorbed into unchanged FY guidance). Discount AST's own forward dates and near-term revenue prints by a standing margin. Farrar's Aug 22 read of the same "targeting"/"early 2027" language as understated slippage is independent, analyst-side corroboration of this same finding.
Tim Farrar (X/@TMFAssociates) — doctrine input, not lead signal — keeps compounding a track record: his Jul 18-19 launch-acquisition speculation got its first AST-sourced corroboration Aug 10 (still no named target, open question 6); his Aug 1 BlueBird-shipment dispute was CONFIRMED by AST's own Aug 10 language (also right on New Glenn); and his Aug 21 dismissal of T-Mobile/AST and AT&T-VZ/Grain retail rumors found no counter-evidence this pass. Weight his fact-checking accordingly even while speculative claims (the acquisition target, the Grain deadlock) stay unconfirmed.
Calibration lesson, still live: "already checked, found nothing" is not "closed" — Aug 14 (MIC/Inmarsat) and Aug 17 (Elveo) both surfaced months-old public-record events a prior "clean" pass had missed, the dormant-field condition under which a real event reads as "still nothing." Fixed going forward: advanced-television.com and AST's X account are in the standing scan, soumu.go.jp gets periodic re-query. Blind spot still open: the Jun 17 brief's "10 Block-2 satellites in orbit" claim doesn't reconcile against the launch sequence (BB6/BB7 lost, BB8-10) — needs a primary AST disclosure.
Source-tier distinction: Bloomberg's Aug 20-21 spectrum-bid report is deal-rumor journalism ("people familiar with the matter"), distinct from AST's own promotional walk-back pattern or Farrar's fact-checked X posts — no Bloomberg telecom-M&A track record yet on this beat. Treat the bid's occurrence as credible (rapid multi-outlet pickup) but the reported deal friction (equity vs. cash) as X-tier until AST, Grain, or an FCC filing confirms it.
Does Japan's MIC itself (not CIAJ) ever confirm RAST Corporation as the J-LEO subsidy recipient? Political & regulatory.
Resolves whenMIC's website naming RAST/Rakuten/AST, or an AST 8-K dropping the "pending"/"no assurance" language. (Cross-ref non-Western sovereign constellations.)
Does AST secure a confirmed, named line item in IRIS²/SpaceRISE? Wisniewski's Aug 10 answer was another non-denial-non-confirmation.
Resolves whenan EC or SpaceRISE consortium statement naming AST or Satellite Connect Europe.
Does Verizon or T-Mobile ever name AST (AT&T leg resolved 07-29, CHANGELOG), or does T-Mobile's Starlink exclusivity rule that leg out? Aug 10's Kraft question drew another non-answer; Farrar's Aug 21 dismissal of "T-Mobile about to partner with AST" chatter found no counter-evidence.
Resolves whenan explicit carrier statement naming AST, or ending Starlink exclusivity.
Does Q3 2026 confirm the ~45-satellite early-2027 target stays on track once BB14-16 ship and launch (target reaffirmed 08-05/08-10, CHANGELOG)? Farrar's Aug 22 read of the same target language as "mid-year at best" sharpens the downside case.
Resolves whenAST's Q3 2026 results or an interim update.
Does Farrar's launch-company-acquisition speculation materialize? AST-sourced corroboration exists but no named target; Aug 16's Vulcan hedge is partnership/evaluation, not acquisition.
Resolves whenan AST 8-K or release naming a target.
Do Ligado's hosted-payload bid (SAT-MOD-20251206-00374) or AST's narrower international 2GHz request (SAT-MOD-20260105-00005/ -20260121-00036) get decided at the FCC? Both undecided as of Aug 23; the Inmarsat Delaware appeal lowers delay risk but resolves neither docket, and Farrar's unconfirmed Aug 19 DoD-Ligado chatter adds a downside path.
Resolves whenan FCC order, a ruling on 1:26-cv-00118, or a confirmed DOJ-Ligado settlement naming spectrum terms.
Is AST's Aug 4 Japan D2C activation a genuine commercial service, or a soft/test activation? NARROWED: Mikitani's Aug 10 Q4 2026 launch-target reaffirmation is consistent with, not proof of, the soft-launch read.
Resolves whenan AST/Rakuten release naming the service's commercial/subscriber status.
Does the SES-Elveo investment amount or a governance right get disclosed? Neither's Aug 17 release names a figure.
Resolves whenan SES 8-K/6-K, investor-day slide, or Elveo FCC filing.
Does AST comment on, or react competitively to, Elveo? AST was tagged, not quoted, in Space Intel Report's coverage; no AST statement found.
Resolves whenan AST earnings-call remark, filing, or press statement referencing Elveo, Lynk, or Omnispace.
Does AST's reported Grain Management 800MHz bid close, and on what terms? Unmoved through Aug 23 — preliminary offers due early September, FCC-targeted Nov 5 close; Farrar's unconfirmed Aug 19 cash-vs-equity deadlock claim stands unconfirmed.
Resolves whenGrain's bid outcome, an AST 8-K, or primary confirmation of bid terms.
Complete append-only series — 114 readings, 31 Mar 2025 → 23 Aug 2026. Rows never change once added; the time series is the evidence base. Each row number is a permanent link — click it to copy a link straight to that reading.
| # | Date | Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2024-09 | BlueBird Block 1 satellites launched | 5 satellites, first commercial constellation in orbit | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-03-04_English.pdf |
| 2 | 2025-01 | AST convertible notes (1st tranche, 7-yr) | $460M principal, 4.25% coupon, capped call to ~$44.98/sh effective conversion | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-03-04_English.pdf |
| 3 | 2025-03-31 | Cash & liquidity, pro forma | ~$1.0B (post Jan 2025 convert close) | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-03-04_English.pdf |
| 4 | 2025-03-04 (pub) | Commercial service guidance | beta by end-2025; full consumer commercial "sometime during early 2026" | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-03-04_English.pdf |
| 5 | 2025-03-04 (pub) | US government contracts | $43M SDA contract, 5th US government contract to date | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-03-04_English.pdf |
| 6 | 2025-05-12 (pub) | Cost per satellite (Block 2) | raised to $21-23M from $19-21M, tariff-driven | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-05-12_English.pdf |
| 7 | 2025-07 | AST convertible notes (2nd tranche) | effective conversion strike ~$120/sh | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-08-11_English.pdf |
| 8 | 2025-08-11 | Cash & liquidity, pro forma | >$1.5B | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-08-11_English.pdf |
| 9 | 2025-mid | AST/Vodafone EU joint venture formed | originally named "SatCo," Luxembourg HQ, ~20 staff, 5-yr EU/Africa exclusivity with Vodafone | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-08-11_English.pdf |
| 10 | 2025-10 | AST convertible notes (3rd tranche, 10-yr) | 2.00% coupon, effective strike $96.30/sh; ~$1.6B combined net proceeds with July tranche | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-11-10_English.pdf |
| 11 | 2025-10 (pub) | stc (Saudi Telecom Group) definitive agreement | 10-year commercial agreement, $175M prepayment due end-2025, covers Saudi Arabia/MENA | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-11-10_English.pdf |
| 12 | 2025-11-10 | Cash & liquidity, pro forma | ~$3.2B | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-11-10_English.pdf |
| 13 | 2025-11-10 (pub) | Contracted commercial revenue commitments | >$1.0B, first disclosed | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-11-10_English.pdf |
| 14 | 2025-11-10 (pub) | EU JV renamed | "SatCo" renamed "Satellite Connect Europe"; MOU interest disclosed from 21 of 27 EU member states | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-11-10_English.pdf |
| 15 | 2025-11-10 (pub) | IRIS² positioning, management language | CSO Wisniewski non-denial: "we don't want to comment on new contract awards... we think we're very well positioned for any country or any customer" | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-11-10_English.pdf |
| 16 | 2025-11-10 (pub) | Commercial service guidance | intermittent nationwide service "early 2026," continued service "later in 2026" | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2025-11-10_English.pdf |
| 17 | 2025-12 (pub) | AST reaction to EchoStar/SpaceX S-band deal | "it closely mirrored the transaction we did [Jan 2025]... it validated that we had an important asset" | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Company Conference Presentation_2025-12-08_English.pdf |
| 18 | 2025-12-31 | Cash & liquidity, pro forma | $3.9B | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-03-02_English.pdf |
| 19 | 2025 FY | Revenue | $70.9M FY2025 (top of $50-75M guide); Q4'25 alone $54.3M | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-03-02_English.pdf |
| 20 | 2026-02 | AST convertible notes (4th tranche, 10-yr) | ~$1.06B principal, 2.25% coupon, effective strike $116.30/sh | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-03-02_English.pdf |
| 21 | 2026-03-02 (pub) | FY2026 revenue guidance | $150-200M | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-03-02_English.pdf |
| 22 | 2026-03-02 (pub) | US government contracts, count | 10 total; incl. $30M SDA Europa Track 2 award and MDA SHIELD/Golden Dome IDIQ | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-03-02_English.pdf |
| 23 | 2026-03-02 (pub) | Commercial service guidance | commercial activation "second half" of 2026 | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-03-02_English.pdf |
| 24 | 2026-03-02 (pub) | Manufacturing pace, management response to analyst question | acknowledged pace "somewhat behind where you had expected" without full rebuttal | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-03-02_English.pdf |
| 25 | 2026-04 (approx.) | BlueBird 7 (Block 2) lost | New Glenn upper-stage (BE-3U) anomaly; New Glenn's booster itself landed successfully on 2 of its last 3 flights, incl. this one | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Company Conference Presentation_2026-05-18_English.pdf |
| 26 | 2026-04-22 | FCC full commercial D2D authorization | nationwide US broadband D2D commercial authority granted | brief 2026-06-25T2217Z; SpaceNews |
| 27 | 2026-03-31 | Cash & liquidity | $3.5B | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-05-11_English.pdf |
| 28 | 2026-05-11 (pub) | Q1'26 revenue | $14.7M | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-05-11_English.pdf |
| 29 | 2026-05-11 (pub) | Contracted commercial revenue commitments | $1.2B | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-05-11_English.pdf |
| 30 | 2026-05-11 (pub) | Telus definitive agreement | 2nd Canadian MNO partner, also an equity investor | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-05-11_English.pdf |
| 31 | 2026-05-11 (pub) | Axian Telecom partnership | pan-African, 11 countries | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-05-11_English.pdf |
| 32 | 2026-05-11 (pub) | US government contracts | 3 additional new prime-contractor awards; new wholly-owned government/defense subsidiary established | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-05-11_English.pdf |
| 33 | 2026-05-11 (pub) | Live data-rate record | 98.9 Mbps to unmodified smartphone, international waters, Block 1 hardware, achieved without the ASIC | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-05-11_English.pdf |
| 34 | 2026 (guidance, evolving) | Satellites in orbit by end-2026, target | "45-60" (Mar 2026 call) narrowed to "~45" (May 2026 call); "60 ready to ship" language dropped after BlueBird 7's loss | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Earnings Call_2026-05-11_English.pdf |
| 35 | 2026-05-18 (pub) | ASIC (AST5000) status | complete, in production line; 10 GHz processing bandwidth vs. ~1 GHz FPGA baseline | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Company Conference Presentation_2026-05-18_English.pdf |
| 36 | 2026-05-18 (pub) | Carrier D2D JV reaction | AST calls reported AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile D2D JV "validating," reasserts "carrier neutral" positioning; no tech-partner confirmed or denied | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Company Conference Presentation_2026-05-18_English.pdf |
| 37 | 2026-05-28 (pub) | Same carrier D2D JV, independent reference | Viasat's own earnings call frames itself (Equatys) as a possible technology provider to the same JV | [INBOX] Viasat Inc._Earnings Call_2026-05-28_English.pdf |
| 38 | 2026-06-24 | Japan MIC subcommittee approves 700MHz D2D use | Rakuten is the sole 700MHz holder among Japan's 4 MNOs — structural edge for Rakuten/AST vs. rival KDDI/SpaceX bid | brief 2026-06-25T2234Z; PayloadSpace |
| 39 | 2026-06-25 | Rakuten Mobile-AST JV formalized | 50/50 joint venture, 8-K filed | brief 2026-07-01T0630Z |
| 40 | ~2026-06-29/30 (JST) | Japan J-LEO subsidy recipient selection | CIAJ (MIC-delegated industry association) selects Rakuten/AST ("RAST Corporation") for ~¥150bn (~$926-928M) over 3 years; secondary Japanese press only at time of report, no primary MIC confirmation | Nikkei, Japan Times, ITmedia, k-tai Watch (briefs 2026-07-01T0447Z, 2026-07-02T0446Z) |
| 41 | 2026-06-30 | ASTS share price reaction to J-LEO reports | +21% single-day | brief 2026-07-01T0447Z |
| 42 | 2026-06-17 | BlueBirds 8, 9, 10 launched | Falcon 9; brief states this brings AST to "10 Block-2 satellites in orbit" (see ANALYTIC STANCE re: count discrepancy against the launch sequence) | brief 2026-06-25T2217Z; BusinessWire 2026-06-17 |
| 43 | 2026-06-23 | BlueBirds 11, 12, 13 targeted launch window | "first half of August" 2026, Falcon 9, Cape Canaveral | brief 2026-06-25T2217Z; SEC EDGAR 8-K accession 0001493152-26-028544 |
| 44 | 2026-06-30 (approx.) | Cash & liquidity | funded for 100+ satellites vs. 45-60 satellite target for 2026 | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Company Conference Presentation_2025-12-08_English.pdf (context figure, restated across late-2025/early-2026 calls) |
| 45 | 2026-06-30 | Cash, preliminary | ~$2,723M as of this date | SEC EDGAR 8-K, accession 0001493152-26-033365 (filed 2026-07-15) |
| 46 | 2026-07-15 | AST 8-K walks back Japan J-LEO characterization | "preliminary selection... no assurance that the joint venture will be finalized or that government financing will be secured" | SEC EDGAR 8-K, accession 0001493152-26-033365 |
| 47 | 2026-07-15 | AST convertible notes (5th tranche, 2034) priced | $1.0B principal, 1.625% coupon, ~$79.57 conversion price (~20% premium to pre-announcement close) | SEC EDGAR 8-K, accession 0001493152-26-033365, ex99-1.htm |
| 48 | 2026-07-15 | Revised satellite target, same 8-K | ~45 BlueBirds "early 2027" | SEC EDGAR 8-K, accession 0001493152-26-033365 |
| 49 | 2026-07-07 to 2026-07-14 | AST homepage quiet edit | removed ~60-MNO partner coverage-map SVG; subscriber claim bumped "nearly 3 billion" to "over 3 billion" | brief 2026-07-17T0649Z, Wayback diff |
| 50 | 2026-07-17 | soumu.go.jp direct fetch (Japan MIC press archive) | no release names RAST, Rakuten, or AST SpaceMobile; June 30 announcement was CIAJ's, not the Ministry's | brief 2026-07-17T0649Z |
| 51 | 2026-07-17 | Analyst rating actions | Piper Sandler initiates Overweight ($100 PT); B. Riley upgrades to Buy ($85 PT) | brief 2026-07-18T0446Z |
| 52 | 2026-07-18/19 | Farrar (X/@TMFAssociates) speculation | AST "intends to buy a launch company" to fix cadence; original 9-New-Glenn-launch 2026 plan "never realistic" — unconfirmed speculation, not a filed event | brief 2026-07-20T0441Z, X/@TMFAssociates |
| 53 | 2026-07-20 | Midland, TX incentive package (reported, version 1) | $150M package, ~1,800 jobs; MDC board vote scheduled, outcome unconfirmed in-window | brief 2026-07-20T1006Z |
| 54 | 2026-07-20 | AST convertible notes (2034) closed | $983.6M net proceeds; $149.1975 capped-call cap price | SEC EDGAR 8-K, accession 0001493152-26-033912 |
| 55 | 2026-07-21 | Midland, TX incentive package (reported, version 2 — conflicts with 07-20 figures) | $66M package, 1,600 direct jobs, $128M annual payroll target, 400,000 sq ft plant; City Council vote scheduled | brief 2026-07-21T0443Z |
| 56 | 2026-07-21 | BlueBirds 8/9/10 operational status confirmed | confirmed operational in orbit; BlueBirds 11-13 still targeted for early-August Cape Canaveral launch, no schedule change | brief 2026-07-21T2111Z |
| 57 | 2026-01-07 | AST files for international 2 GHz MSS access | ICFS File No. SAT-MOD-20260105-00005: 2000-2020 MHz (Earth-to-space)/2180-2200 MHz (space-to-Earth) outside the US; AST has no US authority in these bands and did not seek it | FCC DA-26-398 (Space Bureau), para. 8 |
| 58 | 2025-12 (filed) | Ligado files to host MSS payload aboard AST's constellation | ICFS File No. SAT-MOD-20251206-00374: Ligado Networks Subsidiary LLC (Debtor-in-Possession, L-band MSS incumbent) applies to operate aboard AST & Science LLC's NGSO satellites using the 1525-1599 MHz/1626.5-1660.5 MHz L-band; status pending as of Apr 23, 2026 | FCC DA-26-398, fn. 86 |
| 59 | 2026-04-23 | FCC dismisses AST's international 2 GHz MSS bid, with prejudice | "we... dismiss, with prejudice, AST's request to operate in the 2000-2020 MHz... and 2180-2200 MHz... bands outside of the United States" — to protect the international 2 GHz rights of the incumbent's assignee (SpaceX, via the EchoStar spectrum deal); AST's separate pending request for 1980-2000/2020-2025/2160-2180 MHz not addressed in this order | FCC DA-26-398 (Space Bureau, Chief Jay A. Schwarz), paras. 23, 37 |
| 60 | 2026-04-22 | FCC grants AST's SCS application for 700MHz/800MHz cellular bands (incl. FirstNet spectrum) | domestic (US) supplemental-coverage-from-space grant, secured via AST's spectrum-lease partnerships with AT&T and Verizon under the GIA framework; distinct order from the Apr 23 international-2GHz denial above, one day apart | brief 2026-06-25T2217Z; SpaceNews; corroborated by tmfassociates.com Starlink profile (2026-07-22), Sec. 1.4 |
| 61 | 2026-07-22 (pub) | AT&T CEO confirms AST as D2D technology partner, on the record | Stankey: AT&T's "2%" corner-case coverage plan runs through "the JV and... one of the partners who are working with AST SpaceMobile," and the launch product is "the AST offering," targeted "as we move into next year" [2027] | AT&T Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (LSEG StreetEvents, event date 2026-07-22) |
| 62 | 2026-07-22 (pub) | AT&T distinguishes "wholesale" from "partnership" on D2D | Stankey: no need for a wholesale D2D arrangement to serve AT&T's core market ("I don't necessarily need a wholesale arrangement... because I can get at 98% of the traffic"), but affirms the AST partnership for the remaining "2%" | AT&T Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (LSEG StreetEvents, event date 2026-07-22) |
| 63 | 2026-07-21 | Midland, TX incentive package, final approved terms (resolves the 07-20/07-21 conflicting reports) | $66M over 30 years, performance-based ($16M ground-lease reimbursement + incentive payments capped at $3.3M/yr); ~1,800 jobs; >$140M annual payroll at full build-out; 400,000 sq ft facility at Midland Spaceport Business Park; ~$1B projected annual economic impact; approved same-day by both Midland Development Corporation and Midland City Council | firstalert7.com, 2026-07-21 (live fetch); corroborated by permianpress.com, congress.net |
| 64 | 2026-07-24 (pub) | Verizon Q2 2026 earnings call: CEO confirms three-carrier D2D JV exists, does not name AST | New Verizon CEO Dan Schulman (succeeded Hans Vestberg Oct 2025): "we want to work with the satellite providers, primarily through the JV with T-Mobile and AT&T"; separately, "no backdoor to our MVNOs in any structure" — rules out extending wholesale MVNO access to satellite competitors via the JV | Verizon Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, event date 2026-07-24 (stockanalysis.com transcript mirror) |
| 65 | 2026-07-27 (pub) | AST Q2 2026 business-update call scheduled | August 10, 2026, 5:00pm ET | AST SpaceMobile press release via BusinessWire, 2026-07-27 |
| 66 | 2026-07-28 (pub) | BlueBirds 11-13 launch window, confirmed precise timing | Aug 5, 2026, 3:42am EDT primary / 5:10am EDT backup, Cape Canaveral SFS, Falcon 9; BlueBirds 14-16 described as "already preparing for the next mission"; manufacturing advanced through satellite #42; company now >500,000 sq ft global manufacturing footprint, 2,250+ employees, ~95% of technology in-house | AST SpaceMobile press release via BusinessWire, 2026-07-28 |
| 67 | 2026-08-01 (pub) | BlueBird 11-13 physically stacked at Cape Canaveral; BB14-16 shipment status disputed | Farrar (X/@TMFAssociates) confirms a July 31 photo shows BB11-13 "stacked for launch" at Cape Canaveral, but disputes a viral claim the photo also shows BB14-16, stating BB14-16 "haven't even shipped from Texas" — in tension with AST's own 07-28 PR language ("already preparing for the next mission") | PRIMARYX/@TMFAssociates, 2026-08-01T20:22Z & T21:33Z (mirrored, sources/latest/x-tmfassociates.json) — doctrine input per ANALYTIC STANCE, not company-sourced |
| 68 | 2026-08-02 | No new FCC action on AST's two open international-2GHz dockets or Ligado's hosted-payload docket; no new AST 8-K since Jul 20 closing | SAT-MOD-20260105-00005, SAT-MOD-20260121-00036, and Ligado's SAT-MOD-20251206-00374 all remain undecided; newest EDGAR filing since the Jul 20 8-K is an immaterial Form 3 insider-ownership filing (Jul 24, accession 0001493152-26-034477) | PRIMARYsources/latest/edgar-asts.json, fcc-docs-index.json, fcc-ecfs-cband-spacex.json, direct checks this run |
| 69 | 2026-04-21 | FCC grants AST & Science base 248-satellite NGSO constellation authorization | "GRANT... With Conditions": authority to deploy 223 additional LEO NGSO space stations (223 beyond the existing 25) and to perform SCS, MSS, FSS, and direct-to-cell operations plus feeder-link/TT&C; distinct order, one day earlier than both the Apr 22 SCS lease-waiver grant and the Apr 23 international-2GHz denial (DA-26-398) already tracked; fn.9 confirms AST's satellite operations center will be located in Germany per a Nov 6, 2025 Vodafone/AST press release, "subject to the outcome of any future Commission rulemakings" | FCC DA-26-391 (Space Bureau/Wireless Telecommunications Bureau/OET/PSHSB), pp.1-3 |
| 70 | 2026-05-18 (pub) | Per-launch-vehicle satellite capacity, AST's own figures | CSO Wisniewski: "You can put 3 in a Falcon 9. You can put 4 growing to 8 with a New Glenn, you can put 5 on a Vulcan, you can put 2 on ISRO, 3 in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries... 5 on an Ariane 6" — New Glenn ramping 4->8/launch vs. Falcon 9's fixed 3, if it requalifies | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile Inc._Company Conference Presentation_2026-05-18_English.md |
| 71 | 2026-06-22 (pub) | Inmarsat appeals Delaware bankruptcy-court order compelling support for Ligado/AST coordination | Docket 1:26-cv-00118 (D. Del.): Inmarsat contests a January 2026 order it says denied an evidentiary hearing/discovery, arising from Inmarsat's dispute with Ligado over coordination obligations for the AST-hosted "SkyTerra Next" L-band payload; distinct from, but bears on, the still-undecided FCC docket SAT-MOD-20251206-00374 | Communications Daily, 2026-06-22 (live fetch) |
| 72 | 2026-07-23 (pub) | T-Mobile Q2 2026 earnings call: CEO confirms 3-carrier D2D JV progressing but does not name AST; T-Mobile's own D2D remains Starlink-exclusive | Gopalan: JV "conversations are going really well... progressing rapidly towards the long-form agreement"; JV "does allow for individual operators to have conversations and agreements with other parties, but our expectation is the vast majority will be sourced through the JV"; IR SVP Yao, on Starlink exclusivity: "We have said in the past that it does not end this year," confirmed by Gopalan; no mention of AST anywhere in the transcript | T-Mobile Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (LSEG StreetEvents, event date 2026-07-23) |
| 73 | 2026-08-05 | BlueBirds 11-13 launch outcome: successful | Falcon 9 (booster B1077) launched 07:49 UTC (03:49 EDT) from Cape Canaveral SFS, inside the primary window; all 3 Block 2 satellites deployed successfully beginning ~54 min after liftoff; booster landed on droneship "A Shortfall of Gravitas" (its 162nd landing); deployment/checkout expected to take "a couple of weeks" before joining the active constellation | AST SpaceMobile press release via BusinessWire, 2026-08-05 ("AST SpaceMobile Announces Successful Orbital Launch of BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13"); corroborated by Spaceflight Now live coverage |
| 74 | 2026-08-05 (pub) | Block 2 BlueBird 11-13 specs and guidance | Peak data rate "approaching 200 Mbps" (vs. 98.9 Mbps Block 1 record, May 2026), ~2x Block 1 peak; ~2,400 sq ft phased arrays, AST's claimed "largest commercial phased arrays in LEO"; manufacturing advanced through unit 42; BB14-16 again described as "preparing for next mission" (cf. TRACKED SERIES 2026-08-01 shipment-status dispute, still unresolved) | AST SpaceMobile press release via BusinessWire, 2026-08-05 |
| 75 | 2026-08-06 (pub) | Satellite Connect Europe integration testing, named MNO partners disclosed for the first time | Vodafone, Orange, Telefónica, Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone Ukraine; integration testing underway in UK, Ireland, Romania, France, Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, Ukraine, via Satellite Connect Europe's gateway infrastructure; release restates "nearly 60" global MNO partners and "3+ billion" subscribers (cf. TRACKED SERIES 2026-07-07/14 Wayback finding of a quietly-deleted 60-MNO map) | AST SpaceMobile press release via BusinessWire, 2026-08-06 ("AST SpaceMobile Accelerates Presence Across Europe with Leading Mobile Network Operators") |
| 76 | 2026-08-07 | No new FCC action on either open AST 2GHz docket or Ligado's hosted-payload docket since Aug 2; no new AST 8-K since Jul 24 Form 3 | SAT-MOD-20260105-00005, SAT-MOD-20260121-00036, and SAT-MOD-20251206-00374 all remain undecided per fcc-docs-index.json through DA-26-825 (Aug 6); edgar-asts.json unchanged since the Jul 24 Form 3 | sources/latest/fcc-docs-index.json, edgar-asts.json, direct checks this run |
| 77 | 2026-08-04 (reported) | AST notifies FCC of D2C service commencement in Japan, AST's first non-US market | Per its license conditions, AST told the FCC it "commenced D2C operations" in Japan; "over the next couple of weeks will have sufficient BlueBird satellites in orbit to provide a good supplemental service over the whole of Japan"; precedes AST's own guided "second half 2026" US commercial-activation target; underlying ICFS submission itself unreachable (standing FCC host-level block — no direct primary read this run) | PRIMARYadvanced-television.com, 2026-08-04 ("AST SpaceMobile confirms D2C in Japan"), citing AST's FCC filing directly |
| 78 | 2026-08-04/05 (reported, uncorroborated) | Cluster of lower-tier outlets claim AST "secured a user-equipment license" from Japan's MIC alongside the D2C activation | Claim appears unattributed across foreignpolicyjournal.com, stocktwits.com, congress.net and similar churn-tier sites; NOT present in advanced-television.com's independently-sourced account of the same FCC filing; NOT treated as the MIC-level J-LEO confirmation Open Question 1 requires | foreignpolicyjournal.com, 2026-08-05, and similar (flagged low-confidence, not corroborated) |
| 79 | 2026-08-09 | No new FCC action on either open AST 2GHz docket or Ligado's hosted-payload docket since Aug 7; no new AST 8-K since Jul 24 Form 3 | SAT-MOD-20260105-00005, SAT-MOD-20260121-00036, and SAT-MOD-20251206-00374 all remain undecided per fcc-docs-index.json through watermark DA-26-830/FCC-26-54; edgar-asts.json unchanged (mirror hash unchanged since Jul 24 Form 3) | sources/latest/fcc-docs-index.json, edgar-asts.json, direct checks this run |
| 80 | 2026-08-10 | Q2 2026 revenue | $31.520M, missed ~$35.2M analyst consensus (S&P Global estimate); up from $14.7M in Q1 2026 and $1.156M in Q2 2025 | SEC EDGAR 10-Q, accession 0001193125-26-342550 |
| 81 | 2026-08-10 | Q2 2026 revenue backlog | ~$1.30B aggregate contracted revenue (commercial partners + US government awards), up from $1.2B (May 2026); Wisniewski, Q&A: "a minority of it is government," but government adds "expect to scale... most significantly" | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile, Inc._Earnings Call_2026-08-10T00_00_00_English.md |
| 82 | 2026-08-10 (pub) | New US government contracts, Q2 2026 cluster | 3 new awards, "funded near-term value of over $100 million" (call)/"over $125 million" (press release), for undisclosed "national-security applications," expected 2026-2027; agency/purpose breakdown not disclosed | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile, Inc._Earnings Call_2026-08-10T00_00_00_English.md; corroborated SEC EDGAR 8-K accession 0001193125-26-342540 press release |
| 83 | 2026-06-30 | Cash and cash equivalents (GAAP, final) | $2,288.253M cash & equivalents + $6.181M restricted cash (current) + $428.400M restricted cash (non-current) = $2,722.834M total — reconciles exactly to the "preliminary" $2,723M figure already tracked | SEC EDGAR 10-Q, accession 0001193125-26-342550, balance sheet |
| 84 | 2026-08-10 (pub) | Cash & liquidity, pro forma (incl. July 2034 notes) | "over $3.7 billion," per CFO Johnson — actual June 30 total ($2,722.8M) plus the $1.15B gross proceeds from the July 2034 convertible-note offering | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile, Inc._Earnings Call_2026-08-10T00_00_00_English.md |
| 85 | 2026-07-20 | AST convertible notes (5th tranche, 2034), final size confirmed | $1.15B aggregate principal — the base $1.0B plus a $150.0M initial-purchaser over-allotment option "exercise[d]... in full"; supersedes this dossier's earlier $983.6M net-proceeds figure as the base-tranche-only number, not a discrepancy | SEC EDGAR 10-Q, accession 0001193125-26-342550, Note on Convertible Notes |
| 86 | 2026-08-10 (pub) | ~45-satellite early-2027 target | REAFFIRMED: CFO Johnson, "targeting approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027"; Wisniewski explicitly excludes New Glenn from the near-term plan ("we're not betting on that in our numbers... with a mix of launches, we think we can get to early 2027") | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile, Inc._Earnings Call_2026-08-10T00_00_00_English.md |
| 87 | 2026-08-10 (pub) | Launch manifest | "10 launches booked with 2 different providers," targeting "a cadence of every month or 2 on average"; Blue Origin/New Glenn separately described as an unbudgeted upside ("we'll be happy if they do it") | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile, Inc._Earnings Call_2026-08-10T00_00_00_English.md |
| 88 | 2026-08-10 (pub) | BlueBirds 14-16 shipment status | CFO Johnson: "ready to ship shortly" — still not shipped as of the call, 5 days after BB11-13 reached orbit; resolves Open Question 9 toward Farrar's Aug 1 "haven't even shipped from Texas" read over AST's own Jul 28/Aug 5 "preparing for the next mission" PR framing | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile, Inc._Earnings Call_2026-08-10T00_00_00_English.md |
| 89 | 2026-08-10 (pub) | Manufacturing progress | Production/assembly advanced through BlueBird unit 46 (from unit 42, Aug 5); current cadence ~6 satellites/month; mid-band Micron production starts later 2026, targeting launch "very early in '27" | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile, Inc._Earnings Call_2026-08-10T00_00_00_English.md |
| 90 | 2026-08-10 (pub) | Launch-vehicle vertical-integration language, first company-sourced | CFO Johnson: balance-sheet strength positions AST "to pursue... partnerships and/or acquisitions to further vertically integrate our business and mitigate risks associated with third-party launch providers" — first AST-sourced corroboration (not target confirmation) of Farrar's Jul 18-19 launch-company-acquisition speculation | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile, Inc._Earnings Call_2026-08-10T00_00_00_English.md |
| 91 | 2026-08-10 (pub) | Spectrum figures, updated | ~1,150 MHz combined low/mid-band tunable capacity claimed; ~100MHz US access (MNO-provided + owned), ~60MHz+ global; C-band already designed into the AST5000 ASIC architecture, a 3rd-gen chip to add L-band MSS/mid-band/C-band together | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile, Inc._Earnings Call_2026-08-10T00_00_00_English.md |
| 92 | 2026-08-10 (pub) | Beta/commercial service timing, reiterated | Wisniewski: consumer beta targeted "later in 2026"; ~25 satellites in orbit implies roughly half-day coverage per location; commercial service viable "with as little as 45 satellites in orbit"; 2027 revenue still guided to "approach $1 billion," ~half from government | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile, Inc._Earnings Call_2026-08-10T00_00_00_English.md |
| 93 | 2026-08-10 (pub) | J-LEO status, updated CEO language | Avellan: AST "received an award pending government approvals and final agreements" with Rakuten for J-LEO, "total expected value of up to approximately USD 1 billion in non-dilutive, non-debt government capital" — still conditioned; no MIC (vs. CIAJ) naming | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile, Inc._Earnings Call_2026-08-10T00_00_00_English.md |
| 94 | 2026-08-10 (pub) | T-Mobile/Deutsche Telekom question, non-answer | Analyst Kraft (Deutsche Bank) directly asked if AST is in talks with T-Mobile or parent Deutsche Telekom given DT's EU integration-testing role; Avellan: "we expect to be working with all operators in the United States and all major operators in Europe" — names neither | [INBOX] AST SpaceMobile, Inc._Earnings Call_2026-08-10T00_00_00_English.md |
| 95 | 2026-01-30 | Japan MIC (総務省) primary press release: subsidy grant DECISION goes to CIAJ, not to RAST/Rakuten/AST | MIC decided to grant J-LEO fund-administration subsidy to 一般社団法人情報通信ネットワーク産業協会 (CIAJ) as the fund-managing body (基金設置法人); release states CIAJ will separately conduct the public call for actual "indirect subsidy recipients" (間接補助事業者) once ready, and that information "will also be publicized on the MIC website" (当該公募に関する情報については、総務省ウェブサイトでも周知を行います) — structural explanation for why MIC's role in this program is one step removed from directly naming RAST | soumu.go.jp press release, https://www.soumu.go.jp/menu_news/s-news/01tsushin05_02000055.html (令和8年1月30日/2026-01-30, live fetch this run) |
| 96 | 2026-08-10 (pub) | Rakuten CEO on AST vs. Starlink, Q4 2026 launch reaffirmed | Hiroshi Mikitani: AST is "fundamentally superior" for near-ground-orbit broadband; Rakuten's own "Rakuten Satellite Mobile Service" still targeted for Q4 2026 (Oct-Dec), aiming for up to 100% coverage across four population zones — corroborates the soft-launch read on AST's Aug 4 Japan D2C activation (Open Question 10) | ITmedia Mobile, 2026-08-10 ("楽天の三木谷氏がStarlinkに言及――「正直に言って……」") |
| 97 | 2026-01-30 | Delaware bankruptcy court orders Inmarsat to support Ligado/AST FCC coordination | Order compelling Inmarsat Global Ltd. (Viasat unit) to comply with its Jun 2025 Mediated Agreement obligations, incl. providing regulatory support before the FCC for Ligado's SkyTerra Next/AST hosted-payload application | Law360 Bankruptcy Authority, "Inmarsat Gets Stay Of Bankruptcy Court Order In Ligado Case" (live fetch); CourtListener docket 72219857 |
| 98 | 2026-02-02 | Inmarsat notices appeal of the Jan 30 bankruptcy order | D. Del. case 1:26-cv-00118 opened; Inmarsat argues denial of discovery/trial on the merits | CourtListener docket 72219857 (live fetch) |
| 99 | 2026-02-27 | D. Del. district judge grants Inmarsat's emergency stay of the bankruptcy order | Temporarily paused Inmarsat's compelled cooperation pending appeal | Law360 Bankruptcy Authority, "Inmarsat Gets Stay Of Bankruptcy Court Order In Ligado Case" (live fetch) |
| 100 | 2026-03-04 | Third Circuit vacates the district-court stay; Inmarsat's compelled cooperation resumes | Bloomberg Law: "Inmarsat Must Support Ligado L-Band FCC Bid, Third Circuit Rules"; underlying merits appeal (1:26-cv-00118) continues, but enforcement of the bankruptcy order is NOT currently paused — downgrades the delay risk this dossier flagged 2026-08-07 | Law360 Bankruptcy Authority, "3rd Circ. Nixes Stay Of Bankruptcy Court Order In Ligado Case"; Bloomberg Law (live fetch, both undated-behind-paywall but corroborating) |
| 101 | 2026-08-14 | No new FCC action on either open AST 2GHz docket or Ligado's hosted-payload docket since Aug 9; no new AST 8-K since the Aug 10 10-Q/8-K | SAT-MOD-20260105-00005, SAT-MOD-20260121-00036, and SAT-MOD-20251206-00374 all remain undecided per fcc-docs-index.json through watermark DA-26-861/FCC-26-55; edgar-asts.json unchanged since Aug 10 | sources/latest/fcc-docs-index.json, edgar-asts.json, direct checks this run |
| 102 | 2026-08-16 (pub) | AST launch manifest, 9 more launches needed | Wisniewski: 9 more launches required to complete the ~45-satellite Block 2 target by early 2027; ULA's Vulcan named for the first time as a candidate hedge alongside Falcon 9/New Glenn, despite Vulcan's own NSSL grounding since Feb 25, 2026 | SpaceNews (Jeff Foust), "Satellite operators emphasize launch deals in a constrained market," 2026-08-16T2305Z, via brief 2026-08-17T0343Z |
| 103 | 2025-10 (announced) / 2026-08-14 (closed) | Lynk Global + Omnispace merger | Deal announced Oct 2025 (SatNews); closed with final regulatory approvals Aug 14, 2026; combined entity renamed Elveo (Elveo Mobile), HQ Washington DC metro area | PRNewswire (Lynk/Omnispace joint release), "Lynk and Omnispace Launch Elveo Mobile with Merger Completion," 2026-08-17 |
| 104 | 2026-08-17 (pub) | SES named major strategic investor in Elveo | SES announces "expanded strategic investment and collaboration" with Elveo; other investors: Fortress, StepStone, Columbia Capital, Telcom Ventures, Blazar Ventures, and (per an Aug 17 update) Nelco Ltd (India); investment amount undisclosed; SES CEO Al-Saleh: Elveo is "exactly the type of company we sought as our strategic partner for direct-to-device services" | PRIMARYSES press release, "SES Expands into Global Direct-to-Device Services through Strategic Collaboration with Elveo Mobile," ses.com, 2026-08-17 (mirrored sources/latest/ses-press.html) |
| 105 | 2026-08-17 (pub) | Elveo technical/commercial profile | Combines Lynk's LEO "cell tower in space" smallsat payloads (on-board edge computing, adaptive digital beamforming) with Omnispace's 60MHz of globally-coordinated licensed S-band MSS spectrum (3GPP bands n255/n256, 3GPP NTN-compliant); 320-satellite constellation plan, integration into LEO manufacturing runs continuing through late 2026 and 2027; commercial agreements with 50+ MNOs across 60+ countries; CEO Ramu Potarazu | SatNews, "Lynk Global and Omnispace Complete Merger to Form Direct-to-Device Operator Elveo Mobile," 2026-08-17; corroborated by PRNewswire joint release and Space Intel Report (Peter B. de Selding), 2026-08-17T1203Z (headline/investor list only, full text paywalled) |
| 106 | 2026-08-17 | No new FCC action on either open AST 2GHz docket or Ligado's hosted-payload docket since Aug 14; no new AST 8-K since the Aug 10 10-Q/8-K | SAT-MOD-20260105-00005, SAT-MOD-20260121-00036, and SAT-MOD-20251206-00374 all remain undecided per fcc-docs-index.json through watermark DA-26-865/FCC-26-55; edgar-asts.json unchanged (manifest.json "changed": false) since Aug 10 | sources/latest/fcc-docs-index.json, edgar-asts.json, sources/latest/manifest.json, direct checks this run |
| 107 | 2025-06-13 (pub) | Ligado/Inmarsat/AST settlement term sheet, spectrum terms (backfill — figures not previously in this dossier) | Up to 45MHz of premium lower-mid-band L-band MSS spectrum (40MHz L-band + 5MHz in the 1670-1675MHz band) on an 80+-year usage term via AST's hosted-payload satellites; Ligado pays ~$550M total consideration (~$535M to Inmarsat: $420M due Oct 31, 2025, $100M due Mar 31, 2026, $15M on regulatory approval/closing) | AST SpaceMobile press release via BusinessWire, "AST SpaceMobile Announces Settlement Term Sheet...", 2025-06-13; corroborated SpaceNews, "AST SpaceMobile reaches deal to bankroll Ligado's Viasat settlement," and Via Satellite, 2025-06-16 |
| 108 | 2026-08-14 | AST FCC special temporary authority to test 800MHz D2D | 30-day non-commercial grant to test direct-to-device connectivity on 817-824MHz/862-869MHz (800MHz ESMR), capped at 100 commercially-available phones, near Midland, TX and Lanham, MD, through ~Sept 12; spectrum recently acquired by Grain Management from T-Mobile | PRIMARYSpacewatch Global, broadbandbreakfast.com, and multiple wire outlets, 2026-08-14/17 (underlying FCC ICFS/STA grant text not independently retrievable this run — standard host-level gap on STA filings); brief 2026-08-18T0343Z |
| 109 | 2026-08-20/21 (reported) | Grain Management opens competitive sale of its 800MHz spectrum; AST and SpaceX both named bidders | ~$6B valuation, spanning ~3,224 US counties; spectrum Grain acquired from T-Mobile via a swap (600MHz licenses + $2.9B cash, FCC-approved Jul 1, 2026); preliminary offers due first week of September, FCC-targeted bidding completion by Nov 5, 2026 — AST's first reported bid to OWN, not lease, US spectrum outright | Bloomberg, "SpaceX, AST Said Seeking to Buy Spectrum Valued at $6 Billion," 2026-08-21T0119Z (via Bloomberg Law mirror); corroborated Telecompetitor, Investing.com, TipRanks, Stocktwits, 2026-08-21 |
| 110 | 2026-08-19 (reported, unconfirmed) | AST-Grain 800MHz negotiation friction; renewed DoD-Ligado settlement chatter | Farrar (X/@TMFAssociates): AST and Grain Management are deadlocked over consideration form for the same 800MHz spectrum (AST reportedly offering equity, Grain wanting cash); separately reports renewed DoD-Ligado spectrum-settlement chatter — a negative read for AST's hosted-payload economics if it ends with Ligado surrendering, not monetizing, its L-band rights | PRIMARYX/@TMFAssociates, 2026-08-19 (not independently re-mirrored this run — rolled off sources/latest/x-tmfassociates.json); brief 2026-08-20T0347Z — doctrine input per ANALYTIC STANCE, not company-sourced |
| 111 | 2026-08-21 | No new FCC action on either open AST 2GHz docket or Ligado's hosted-payload docket since Aug 14; no new AST 8-K since the Aug 10 10-Q/8-K | SAT-MOD-20260105-00005, SAT-MOD-20260121-00036, and SAT-MOD-20251206-00374 all remain undecided per fcc-docs-index.json through watermark DA-26-877/FCC-26-55; edgar-asts.json hash unchanged since Aug 10 (only routine Form 4 insider filings Aug 18-19) | sources/latest/fcc-docs-index.json, edgar-asts.json, sources/latest/manifest.json, direct checks this run |
| 112 | 2026-08-21 (pub) | Farrar dismisses retail speculation of a T-Mobile/AST tie-up and an AT&T/Verizon-funded Grain spectrum bid | "The #cluelesscult are now just throwing things at the wall in desperation. One minute it's TMUS is about to partner with AST, the next it's AT&T & VZ are about to fund the purchase of spectrum TMUS *just sold*!!!" — dismisses both claims as unsupported | PRIMARYX/@TMFAssociates, 2026-08-21T0406Z (mirrored, sources/latest/x-tmfassociates.json) — doctrine input per ANALYTIC STANCE, not company-sourced |
| 113 | 2026-08-22 (pub) | Farrar parses AST's own "targeting" launch-cadence and "early 2027" language as understated slippage | quote-tweeting an $ASTS retail account's complaint that AST won't define "imminent"/"shortly": "How about adding definitions of 'targeting' launches every 1-2 months (ie 'we don't have confirmed slots') and 'early 2027' (ie 'mid year at best') too?" | PRIMARYX/@TMFAssociates, 2026-08-22T2214Z (mirrored, sources/latest/x-tmfassociates.json) — doctrine input per ANALYTIC STANCE, not company-sourced |
| 114 | 2026-08-23 | No new FCC action on either open AST 2GHz docket or Ligado's hosted-payload docket since Aug 14; no new AST 8-K since the Aug 10 10-Q/8-K; Grain Management's 800MHz auction unchanged (preliminary offers still due first week of September) | SAT-MOD-20260105-00005, SAT-MOD-20260121-00036, and SAT-MOD-20251206-00374 all remain undecided per fcc-docs-index.json, watermark unchanged at DA-26-877/FCC-26-55; edgar-asts.json unchanged since Aug 10 (only routine Form 4s through Aug 19) | sources/latest/fcc-docs-index.json, edgar-asts.json, sources/latest/manifest.json; WebSearch re-check of Grain auction status, direct checks this run |