Weak signal · 24 July 2026, 05:00 UTC
Tim Farrar published a new 100+-page Starlink revenue/subscriber forecast through 2030.
As the brief logged it
Posted 2026-07-23T21:53:18Z ("Forecasting Starlink…," tmfassociates.com). Farrar projects $48B total 2030 revenue / 46M consumer subscribers — below Deutsche Bank ($72B/82M), Moffett Nathanson ($73B/70M), RBC ($101B/100M+), and Morgan Stanley ($121B/116M) — arguing the bulls overstate developing-market consumer ARPU and enterprise/government/mobility demand growth. Doctrine input, not breaking news; the bearishness is on revenue/subscriber growth trajectory, not price discipline, so it doesn't directly contradict BASE RATES' "Starlink pricing aggression: CONFIRMED INDEFINITE" line, but the two should be reconciled at retro.
Provenance
Logged in the brief of 24 July 2026.
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